The Russian economy will “go back twenty or thirty years,” predicts a former adviser to the Russian government

Russian economylet’s go back twenty or thirty yearsAnd Vladimir Putin threatened the future of his regime by attacking Ukraine, Sergei Guriev, a former economic adviser to the Russian government in exile in France, told AFP. “Putin managed to destroy the Russian economy in a few weekssays this former chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and now a professor at Science Po in Paris.

He predicts”huge recession‘come and’probably» Russian default due to sanctions imposed against the country by the West. A former economic adviser to the Russian government in the early 2010s and a former member of the board of directors of the main Russian bank Sberbank, Sergei Guriev, fled his country in 2013, feeling threatened by the authorities due to his speeches and proximity to the former Yukos CEO and adversary. Kremlin Mikhail Khodorkovsky, imprisoned in 2003.

According to Sergei Guriev,For the past eight years, the (Russian) economy has stagnated. But we are faced with the fact that the Russian economy is about to go back twenty or thirty years in terms of incomes of the population, as well as in terms of the structure of the economy.“. “It is hard to imagine how many years it will take to return to 2021 GDP levels.“, he continues, meaning “tragedy, not comparable to the drama in Ukraine, but still a tragedy“. Politically Vladimir Putinshortened the lifespan of his diet“because of this attack”miscalculated“against Ukraine,” Sergei Guriev believes: Vladimir Putin is presidentmisinformed“who has”overestimated the power of the Russian army, underestimated the determination of the Ukrainians to fight and underestimated the unity of the West“.

Completely unknown territory»

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the West responded with economic sanctions targeting the central bank, Russian imports, oligarch fortunes, and the ability of commercial banks to transact. The effect of these measures, in addition to the effect of the exit of many private companies, is very difficult to quantify today. S&P Global has been forecasting a 6.2% contraction in GDP in 2022 in recent days, but the scale of the shock could be much larger, Sergei Guriev warns.

We’re entering completely unknown territory“, He says. “Russia is integrated into the world economic system. When you do a decoupling, you break a lot of things. It’s unclear how the economy would function without Taiwan’s semiconductors, maintenance of Boeing or Airbus aircraft.“, he warns. Moreover, “for many entrepreneurs, this is the end of a project of a lifetime– the economist notes in the context of the collapse of the ruble and the departure of many talents from the country. “Imagine that you have built a business in the last twenty or thirty years. Today you no longer have access to your partners, you can no longer borrow from the bank, interest rates exceed 20%, you cannot export or invest“He shells.

Slowing down the trail of sanctions is out of the question: he judges that “if the purpose of these sanctions is to stop Mr. Putin’s war, then Europe has no choice but to stop buying Russian oilBy failing to stop European gas imports, which some countries reject due to their very heavy dependence on supplies from Russia, a European oil embargo on the heels of the United States embargo would deal a severe blow to Moscow’s available resources to fund its war, he said. .If all Western countries joined this initiative, then it would be possible “encourage China to follow them in an oil embargo” as well as “deprive (Vladimir Putin) of the resources to continue his brutal warHe says. Nobel laureate in economics Joseph Stiglitz called on Tuesday in an interview with AFP to impose a complete European embargo on gas and oil.

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