Weather warning: heavy rain and strong southerly wind

TO Regis CREPE, meteorologist

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From Monday, March 21, 12:00 to Tuesday, March 22, 9:00.

Situation

This episode of bad weather is associated with a depression in the Balearic Islands, which brings moisture-laden air from the Mediterranean towards Languedoc-Roussillon.
So between 18:00 Sunday and 18:00 Monday we expect up to 150 mm of water at the Cévennes-Erolese, which corresponds to 1.5 months of rain in 24 hours. The rivers will react moderately, and there is no need to fear large floods like last weekend. However, Cesse and Orb are under surveillance. On the plain and near the sea, accumulations can reach 20-50 mm. Finally, the sea wind is turbulent, gusting up to 80 km/h, it raises a strong swell near the shore with little risk of wave breaking on the shore. Along with these bad weather, from Sunday evening until 12 noon Tuesday, there is a new episode of turbulent outana with gusts up to 90 km/h in Toulouse and 110 km/h in the mountains.

Observation

From Monday morning, the rains tend to ease up after being concentrated in the Upper Languedoc, in particular in the Castanet-les-Eaux sector (34). This weather station is new, dating from 2019, and recorded a total accumulation of 636 mm for this March. This corresponds to 6 months of rain. With regard to the climatology of the neighboring weather stations (Lunas, Bedarie), this value will represent an absolute record of precipitation for the month of March.

Rain accumulations over the 24 hours (Sunday to this Monday) were concentrated in the Castanet-les-Eaux (34) sector with 134mm, at the very site of last week’s exceptional accumulations. Throughout this sector of the Black Mountain (Upper Languedoc) rains fall in accumulations from 50 to 75 mm in 24 hours. For example, in Montpellier, he fell only 14 mm. As for the sea and Autani wind, in traditionally open areas it blows at a speed of 60 to 80 km/h.

At Pertus, in the Eastern Pyrenees, accumulation has reached 120 mm in the last 24 hours.

yesterday sunday, rains were noted in the Cévennes, already 60 mm in Castanet-les-Hauts (34). In the Eastern Pyrenees, 40 mm (66) fell in Pertus, corresponding to 2 weeks of precipitation in March. The Autan wind was quite strong in Midi-Pyrenees, with speeds of 80 km/h in Toulouse (31) and Castres (81), 85 km/h in Rodez (12) and up to 90 km/h in Saint-Felix-Laurage (31 ).

Evolution

This Monday at noonThe rains on the Cévennes Héraultaises are easing, with an intensity of 2 mm/h. The plains and coastal margins of the Aude and Eastern Pyrenees are still subject to stationary showers. The Autan wind remains stable around 70-80 km/h.

This Monday afternoon the depression centered on the Balearic Islands will tend to fill. Rains will continue in Languedoc-Roussillon, weakening and stopping from 18:00. The rain warning will be lifted but will remain in effect overnight due to southerly winds.

Parallel to this bad weather from 12:00 Monday to 12:00 Tuesday there will be a turbulent episode of Autan with gusts up to 90 km/h in Toulouse and 110 km/h in the south of the Massif Central. This new episode of the Autan wind will be weaker than last Monday.

During this episode of bad weather we wait

– up to 100-150 mm of precipitation on Hérault-Cévennes, which corresponds to one and a half months of precipitation in 24 hours.

– 20–50 mm of water in the coastal and lowland regions of Aude and the Eastern Pyrenees, which corresponds to 2 weeks of rain in 24 hours.

– quite significant runoff risks near the Cévennes reliefs, but relatively limited flooding and flooding risks.

– the wind from the sea is strong, in gusts reaching 80 km/h, raising a strong swell into the sea with a small risk of waves breaking ashore. Wind Autan is restless on Monday and Tuesday in the Midi-Pyrenees, reaching 90 km/h on the Toulouse Plain to 110 km/h on the southern reliefs of the Massif Central.

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