To the change of weather next week

TO Regis CREPE, meteorologist

After an atypical March in France, when rainy weather affected the far south of the country, the weather is about to change in April. This change should begin within the next week, first of all, with a rainy-turbulent deterioration. Here’s the weather scenario for today.

This month of March will be atypical for the season, as expected seasonal forecast from the Weather Channel on February 10. While maintaining a powerful anticyclone over Northern Europe, Atlantic disturbances could not circulate over our country. On the whole, France has so far enjoyed mostly good weather, except in the far south, where the rains have been surprisingly abundant in the Languedoc-Roussillon. This good weather has more than just benefits : exacerbates drought in many regions, leads to poor air quality and contributes to night frosts that are detrimental to fruit trees.




Cold weather next week


In recent years, we have seen the beginning of spring very similar to what we are experiencing now, and the months of March are often beautiful and mild. So last year end of March 2021. heat season, breaking many records. This time temperatures won’t reach the same level at all, far from it, but the values ​​remain 3-4°C above average until this weekend. On the other hand, clear nights promote nocturnal radiation and frost damage to fruit trees. At the same time, March frosts are not uncommon, and it is still impossible to talk about “late frosts”. What is harmful is the advance of vegetation due to early sweetness. This meteorological configuration is atypical in the sense that, according to statistics, wet ocean currents should be observed over the country at this time of the year.


These temperatures could drop sharply in the first half of next week north of the Loire with the arrival of polar air through the British Isles. This change in air mass will remain dry in the north of France, but will reactivate instability in the south of our country.


Towards stormy rains in the south of France?


The air mass conflict that will occur over France could cause severe instability in the south of our country from Tuesday to next Thursday, although this development has yet to be clarified. Stormy rains then coming from Spain will fall between the Pyrenees and the Alps, including the PACA region and Corsica. These last two regions are driest in France Currently. Therefore, rains will be desirable until the beginning of April, which should be dry there. But storms, often strong and potentially accompanied by hail, occur locally and probably won’t flood all of these areas. On the other hand, it is also possible that these storms take place at sea, only along the Mediterranean coast. The geographic extent of these rains and their possible increase to the north will be clarified in our next updates.






Beginning of longer changes in April?


This weather transition may herald a more global weather change in April. Indeed, in the first ten days, unrest from the Atlantic may return, bringing rain to the northern part of our country. April may then return to normal rainfall in these regions. On the other hand, the southern third may return to more normal weather, that is, dry and sunny again, after the disturbed brackets of this month of March. In short, we are bringing French weather back in April, after an atypical March.


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