Weather change confirmed next week

TO Regis CREPE, meteorologist

After an atypical March in France, when rainy weather touched the extreme south of the country, the weather is about to change in April. This change will begin next week, primarily with a rainy-stormy deterioration between Tuesday and Wednesday. Here’s the weather scenario for today.

This month of March will be atypical for the season, as expected seasonal forecast from the Weather Channel on February 10. While maintaining a powerful anticyclone over Northern Europe, Atlantic disturbances could not circulate over our country. On the whole, France has so far enjoyed mostly good weather, with the exception of the far south, where in the Languedoc-Roussillon the rains have been surprisingly abundant. This good weather has more than just benefits : exacerbates drought in many regions, leads to poor air quality and contributes to night frosts that are detrimental to fruit trees.




Cold weather next week


In recent years we have seen the beginning of spring very similar to what we are experiencing now, and the months of March are often beautiful and mild. So last year end of March 2021. heat season, breaking many records. This time, temperatures won’t reach the same level at all, far from it, but values ​​will remain 3-4°C above average until this weekend. On the other hand, clear nights contribute to nocturnal radiation and frost, which is detrimental to fruit trees. At the same time, March frosts are not uncommon and cannot yet be called “late frosts”. What is harmful is the advance of vegetation due to early sweetness. This meteorological configuration is atypical in the sense that, according to statistics, wet ocean currents should be observed over the country at this time of the year.


These temperatures will drop sharply in the first half of next week north of the Loire with the arrival of polar air through the British Isles. This change in air mass will remain rather dry in the north of France, but will reactivate instability in the southern half of our country.


Towards stormy rains in the south of France?


The air mass conflict that will occur over France could provoke severe instability in the south of our country from Tuesday to next Thursday, although this development has yet to be clarified. Stormy rains then coming from Spain will fall between the Pyrenees and the Alps, including the PACA region and Corsica. These last two regions are driest in France Currently. Therefore, rains will be welcome until the beginning of April, which should be dry there. But storms, often strong and potentially accompanied by hail, occur locally and probably won’t flood all of these areas. On the other hand, uncertainty remains about the geographic extent of these rains and their possible rise to the north of France. This point will be clarified in our next updates.






Beginning of longer changes in April?


This weather transition heralds a more global weather change in April. Indeed, in the first ten days, unrest from the Atlantic should return, bringing rain to the northern part of our country. Then April should return to normal rainfall in these regions. On the other hand, the southern third will return to more normal weather, that is, again to dry and sunny, after the disturbed brackets of this month of March. In short, we are bringing French weather back in April after an atypical March.


Finally, remember that we will not be spared by a change in weather next week with rainy deterioration and a clear temporary drop in temperature. But to date, the extent of this fall and the distribution of rain over France has not yet been determined. These points will be updated in the coming days.


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