Who will be the next economy minister capable of fighting inflation in 2023? The names are already circulating…

Economics Minister Bruno Le Maire greets European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on 25 February 2022 before the start of the meeting.

Economics Minister Bruno Le Maire greets European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on 25 February 2022 before the start of the meeting.

©Eric PIRMONT / AFP

Atlantico Business

The political class, like the business world, is incorrigible. They are already speculating on the name of a future economy minister who will be able to prevent inflation, absorb the consequences of the war and, above all, not spoil the growth recovery from the pandemic.

whichwe will have to manage on the economic front, afteruhwith presidential electionsa bit like squaring a circle. European economies emerged from the two-year pandemic crisis in fairly good shape. To the surprise of manyAnalysts who promised us disaster, the growth rebound was historic. Rebound marked by tr recoveryuhstrong investment andemployment in the general context of modernization. Digital transformation and energy transformation have served as leverage.

So many feared thatsuch a modelin the end it’s worth ituhroads of France. 2021 budget data publishedInsee show whatthey are better than expected in terms of growth, djobs, and even (surprise!) in conditions of shortage andstate debt.

This problemuhboyis that a war in Ukraine risks jeopardizing the prospects for consolidation. Iinflation is likely to become widespread, in which case it could cause difficulties in debt management. Ratesinterest rates are low, but for the debt reduction mechanism to work, the growth rate of the economy must remain above the global price for an extended period of timemoney (coursepercentage and interest rateinflation). So far, we have benefited fromspeed0% per annumlow inflation of less than 2% and growth of 7% in 2021.El Dorado.

If tomorrowinflation will rise to 5% (and above), and if growth rates stabilize at 4% or even less, the debt refinancing program will fail and cis a disaster.

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However, the risksinflation imported by energy resources (for more details, p.uhre), ruguhfirst answeruhResources and food are real unless a quick solution to the conflict in Ukraine is found.

Before the war wefocuses on the policy of fiscal stabilization. Apruhs war, we will have to build budgets truhdifferent and recognize thatit will be necessary to maintain a deficit outside of the nails.

Why ?

because the systemuhmy production will need boosters and dpublic assistance,

– becausewe will have to pursue an energy saving policy (on oil, on electricity)

– becausehuge investments will be required to change the energy balance, less gas and oil and much more nuclear and natural energy;

– becausewe have to manage the crossingsindustries;

– becausemilitary spending should also be increased.

Such software is neededother European politicsan. He looksUnable to regain crit respectuhcut of Maastricht. Delsewhere in the chapterstate and governmentNorthern Europe, especiallyGermany is preparing for such changes. IGermany will be forced to change its gas supplies and has already decidedzoom viewcompare their military spending that has been metuhheld back from the end of the seconduhmy world war. Ithe obligation to return to a deficit of less than 3% will no longer beagenda. The duty of solidarity withinThe European Union is likely to be better received thanpreviously.

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In short, economic and budgetary policy will require a change of course and closer negotiations in Brussels.

So who to be a ministereconomy?

Political class and business worldask about the casting to be done by the next President of the Republic and for the majority, the next President will be the same as the previous one.

Thus, his choice will depend on the quantitative results of the presidential and legislative elections, as well as, and above all, on the competence orsuitability of candidates for the position. He doesthere is clearly no candidate. But there are advisers who speak and cookcome up with.

A priori and Ten days before the first round, three names are most often circulating, of course, under the heading of secrecy.

Bruno Le Maire completed a five-year term in Bercy, whom everyone congratulates and whom we recognizet severity, lskill and the political and international prudence that he demonstrated. Duhwith the yellow vest crisis, and during the pandemic, he kept the house and huhwhat kind. The numbers prove that everything was done right. Correct logic dictates thathe moves fromanywayanother president during the next government, but no onein my headEmmanuel Macron, nor Bruno Le Maire. Its political weight is weak, its technical, international and European legitimacy is strong. Chaptersbusinesses and unions recognize the easethey had to work with him.

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Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB this is the name most often found in the Macronian movement… She has all the qualities to accesslast functions, does it have the qualitiesto perform a function in such a complex and uncertain situation would require ? AGAINSTis a question many people ask. And they add that France has a lot to lose if it leaves the ECB and is replaced by a Dutch personality close to the Germans. France needsa solid lawyer in Frankfurt to follow the ratesinterest and encourage co-financing.

Thierry Breton, former leaderbusiness, former pro-business minister, currently European Commissioner. He too has many qualities to access the feature. He knows Bersi and probably would like toreturn there. Especially at an important moment in European evolution. He knows the companies well, and the managerscompanies, globalized economy, limitations of energy and digital evolution, nodon’t doENAwhich can be an advantage. His weak point isnever been in politics, at least theoretically. But for Emmanuel Macron it is nnot necessarily a defect.

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