Economics Minister Bruno Le Maire greets European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on 25 February 2022 before the start of the meeting.
which‘we will have to manage on the economic front, afteruhwith presidential elections‘a bit like squaring a circle. European economies emerged from the two-year pandemic crisis in fairly good shape. To the surprise of many‘Analysts who promised us disaster, the growth rebound was historic. Rebound marked by tr recoveryuhstrong investment and‘employment in the general context of modernization. Digital transformation and energy transformation have served as leverage.
So many feared that‘such a modelin the end it’s worth ituhroads of France. 2021 budget data published‘Insee show what‘they are better than expected in terms of growth, d‘jobs, and even (surprise!) in conditions of shortage and‘state debt.
This problemuhboy‘is that a war in Ukraine risks jeopardizing the prospects for consolidation. I‘inflation is likely to become widespread, in which case it could cause difficulties in debt management. Rates‘interest rates are low, but for the debt reduction mechanism to work, the growth rate of the economy must remain above the global price for an extended period of time‘money (course‘percentage and interest rate‘inflation). So far, we have benefited from‘speed‘0% per annum‘low inflation of less than 2% and growth of 7% in 2021.‘El Dorado.
If tomorrow‘inflation will rise to 5% (and above), and if growth rates stabilize at 4% or even less, the debt refinancing program will fail and c‘is a disaster.
Macronism for dummies or for those who pretend not to understand
However, the risks‘inflation imported by energy resources (for more details, p.uhre), ruguhfirst answeruhResources and food are real unless a quick solution to the conflict in Ukraine is found.
Before the war we‘focuses on the policy of fiscal stabilization. Apruhs war, we will have to build budgets truhdifferent and recognize that‘it will be necessary to maintain a deficit outside of the nails.
because the systemuhmy production will need boosters and d‘public assistance,
– because‘we will have to pursue an energy saving policy (on oil, on electricity)
– because‘huge investments will be required to change the energy balance, less gas and oil and much more nuclear and natural energy;
– because‘we have to manage the crossings‘industries;
– because‘military spending should also be increased.
Such software is needed‘other European politicsan. He looksUnable to regain crit respectuhcut of Maastricht. D‘elsewhere in the chapter‘state and government‘Northern Europe, especially‘Germany is preparing for such changes. I‘Germany will be forced to change its gas supplies and has already decided‘zoom viewcompare their military spending that has been metuhheld back from the end of the seconduhmy world war. I‘the obligation to return to a deficit of less than 3% will no longer be‘agenda. The duty of solidarity within‘The European Union is likely to be better received than‘previously.
The war in Ukraine is preparing a global economic crisis
In short, economic and budgetary policy will require a change of course and closer negotiations in Brussels.
So who to be a ministereconomy?
Political class and business world‘ask about the casting to be done by the next President of the Republic and for the majority, the next President will be the same as the previous one.
Thus, his choice will depend on the quantitative results of the presidential and legislative elections, as well as, and above all, on the competence or‘suitability of candidates for the position. He does‘there is clearly no candidate. But there are advisers who speak and cook‘come up with.
A priori and Ten days before the first round, three names are most often circulating, of course, under the heading of secrecy.
Bruno Le Maire completed a five-year term in Bercy, whom everyone congratulates and whom we recognizet severity, l‘skill and the political and international prudence that he demonstrated. Duhwith the yellow vest crisis, and during the pandemic, he kept the house and huhwhat kind. The numbers prove that everything was done right. Correct logic dictates that‘he moves from‘anyway‘another president during the next government, but no one‘in my head‘Emmanuel Macron, nor Bruno Le Maire. Its political weight is weak, its technical, international and European legitimacy is strong. Chapters‘businesses and unions recognize the ease‘they had to work with him.
The energy saving plan that no presidential candidate wants to talk about when it’s more than likely
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB this is the name most often found in the Macronian movement… She has all the qualities to accesslast functions, does it have the qualities‘to perform a function in such a complex and uncertain situation would require ? AGAINST‘is a question many people ask. And they add that France has a lot to lose if it leaves the ECB and is replaced by a Dutch personality close to the Germans. France needs‘a solid lawyer in Frankfurt to follow the rates‘interest and encourage co-financing.
Thierry Breton, former leader‘business, former pro-business minister, currently European Commissioner. He too has many qualities to access the feature. He knows Bersi and probably would like to‘return there. Especially at an important moment in European evolution. He knows the companies well, and the managers‘companies, globalized economy, limitations of energy and digital evolution, no‘don’t do‘ENAwhich can be an advantage. His weak point is‘never been in politics, at least theoretically. But for Emmanuel Macron it is n‘not necessarily a defect.
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