American economy: “In New York, as in Florida, unprecedented dynamism”

It is in the transition between theory and practice, conceptualization and field, that the key to understanding economic phenomena lies. This is how my economic analyzes arise, and not in constructivism, which I refute. The United States, where I have lived and worked in real estate for many years, has always been my favorite venue for this empirical analysis, despite the vagaries caused by Covid in recent months. My recent stay there in Florida and then New York was all the more instructive as I didn’t have the opportunity to travel around the field in 2021.

For the entrepreneur who is once again traveling this continent, what strikes me first is the coexistence of extremely strong growth (but threatened by the general consensus) with its quintessentially American mood, so optimistic, and galloping inflation that gangrene the country and tarnish. party in a certain way. Restaurants and hotels in tourism, construction firms in real estate have moved to the consumer – with the help of the federal government (helicopter money) and benefiting from low unemployment – rising commodity prices. The nature of the service as a whole has changed: The phenomenon of the Great Retirement following Covid layoffs has caused many Americans to move away from those odd jobs in tourism or food service. They reinvented their lives and never came back. So service companies have to rethink their schedules, make do with immigrant labor most of the time, and truth be told, in New York City, for example, the quality of service isn’t what it used to be.

We will also touch on the ground of the gap between Florida, which never shut down its economy during the Covid crisis, and New York, which recovered quickly but remained capped for a long time in 2020: business closures (highlighted by the transition to the Internet), empty office space, barely recovering hotels testify to the slow recovery of cities, which, in fact, awaits the return of tourists and the arrival of new generations of graduates with little interest in Covid or life in the countryside, like their elders who fled the city in 2020.

Florida, like most of the southern United States, has not experienced the pangs of self-isolation and is experiencing an unprecedented real estate boom: we find the excesses of 2006-2007 there, albeit with indiscriminate purchases, but the key areas of Miami are now at their peak. level – and this will be permanent – of large American cities (Los Angeles, New York), because many non-tourist industries (technology, startups, biotechnology, finance) have settled there. Florida’s heliotropism-based economy has given way to some new diversified (no oil) and international Texas due to its openness to Latin America. My Latin American contacts in Florida told me that they actually live in an economic zone, which is the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, the world economy in the Brodelian sense, which stretches from Mexico to Florida across the Gulf of Louisiana and includes, of course, all the Caribbean islands. Ignoring borders, Miami projects itself onto its Mexican counterpart, which shares its excesses, Cancun, as it does its inner suburbs. Thus, this Trumpist state, run by De Santis, assumes multiculturalism as long as order and law are observed (without total immigration).

New York shares this post-COVID real estate boom with Miami in particular in its appetite for housing. The traditional office is quickly buried, no one returns to work in the old towers (but new spaces adapted to environmental standards and the pandemic are in vogue), and we find developers who are taking on the transformation of these buildings from offices …. into apartments! The new town hall is drastically limiting new hotel permits in the wake of the Covid crisis, except for those like my team and I were able to restore titled sites before the crisis…

But New York, constantly reinventing itself, is opening up assets in a new industry that unleashes passions and dreams in the United States: everything related to crypto, DeFi, Web 3.0, and even the metaverse… While Silicon Valley is the cradle of American technologies (many large bitcoin companies were born there), which many states are fighting to create a regulatory and tax environment that favors this industry (Wyoming, Utah, Colorado), or attracting billions of venture capital in sector startups or industry conventions (Texas, Florida, Nevada), it was New York that attracted record volumes of venture capital investments in this sector over the past two years. First, in the last ten years, New York has ceased to be just a city of financiers, lawyers or advertisers: it has become the second tech center in the country, with a real start-up culture that attracts, for example, many French people. But above all cryptocurrency or DeFi (decentralized finance), it remains… finance! What better way to develop new financial protocols, trade, loans and attract investors who understand these issues…than New York? TradFi capital, without denying its origin, is quite logically moving towards DeFi.

This joyful entrepreneurial effervescence is, of course, threatened by inflation and the start of rising interest rates: a slowdown or a slight decline (with a sharp correction in the stock market) before the end of the year seems inevitable. But, as always, in keeping with the Schumpeterian principle of creative renewal, the next group of innovations of the decade is underway in the United States.

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