“A useful vote will take effect from the 1st round,” Jean-Michel Ducomte, political scientist from Toulouse.

The first round of presidential elections will take place on Sunday. This Wednesday morning we give the floor political scientist, Jean Michel Ducomte lecturer at Sciences-Po Toulouse to try and tell us what the vote will be in four days.

First of all, do you think that this first tour can surprise you?

Well, of course; naturally. Every election has its share of surprises. But these elections, especially because there is a first uncertainty about turnout. And it is undeniable, and we have seen this for the last regional or the last European, the level of participation has implications, as one category or another of the electorate can be more or less mobilized. Thus, given the margin of error that exists between some candidates, this can have serious implications.

Jean-Michel Ducomte, however, we have seen and always said that presidential elections reconcile the French with politics. Can we doubt it in 2022?

We may doubt it, yes. With a number of presidential elections, especially since, as it seems to me, the establishment of a five-year term, since we understand that two elections will be held in succession, presidential and second legislative ones. And until now, there has been a notion that when elections of this kind occurred at relatively short intervals, one of them, presidential elections, had a breathing effect that caused legislative elections. However, today we are beginning to understand that the issue is not being raised in the previous conditions and that this can happen, maybe this time it will happen much more clearly than the result of the legislative elections confirms not the result of the presidential elections. And the paradox is that none of the candidates, in their remarks, in these proposals, in their speeches, points out on the basis what parliamentary majority he wants to implement his program. And this is perhaps one of the unknowns, not the vote, but the consequences of the vote and the implementation of the program of the candidate who will eventually be elected president.

Do you think that many voters have not yet chosen a candidate for whom they will vote in this first round?

It’s likely. I think that’there may be slippage, in particular with what is called useful voting, that is, voters who are part of the political family in a broad sense, left, right, far right and who still have hesitation. And since the offer ends up being quite broad in each camp, there can certainly be shifts.

But we say that we choose in the first round and eliminate the candidate in the second. There, in your opinion, can a useful vote be effective from the first round?

I think. Yes, useful voting will be effective from the first round. So you can’t define percentages. Then we will see with qualitative analyses. But we can assume that there is a relatively significant number of voters who today or yesterday confirmed their commitment in the context of opinion polls and who, in all likelihood, will vote differently. They will not radically change their vote, but will stop or vote for a candidate in the political space that belongs to them.

Returning to abstention, five years ago in our region over 80% of registered voters voted in the first round. Who are the abstainers in the region? What is the typical portrait of a person who will not vote on Sunday?

In the region and as a whole, we understand that abstainers gain more in the working class category, often voters with learning experiences that are less important than others. Abstinence certainly has a social dimension.

We may also think that abstinence sometimes maintains the formalienation from politics. And it can win in all categories. As usual, older people will vote the most.

Occitania still votes for the left?

Occitania votes mostly from the left, with nuances, since Occitania is a meeting of two regions. What we can say is that the Midi-Pyrenees voted predominantly from the left. However, the choice of the left is much more problematic in the former region of Languedoc-Roussillon.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon took first place in Toulouse five years ago. Yet it was the right-wing mayor Jean-Luc Mudenc who was re-elected. How do you explain it?

Toulouse’s paradox is that Toulouse votes for the left during national elections, a fairly constant political tradition. On the other hand, at least since 1971, when Dominique Baudi’s father, Pierre Baudi, was elected, municipal elections are more of an election from the right. This is probably related to changes in the social structure of the city From Toulouse. With, no doubt, the distancing of the working classes, who live less in Toulouse, and then probably also with the arrival of a population from outside. The demographic growth of Toulouse also occurs in relation to the external population.

Read also – “Philippe Putu is an ex-SAM nominee,” his spokeswoman Pauline Saling said.

Leave a Comment