1st round, 2nd round… Macron and Le Pen stand out

LAST POLL. Recorded in recent days, the dynamics of intentions to vote clearly in favor of Marine Le Pen. Here is the latest poll and our 2022 presidential election first and second round poll compiler.

[Mis à jour le 8 avril 2022 à 11h17] Find the latest published presidential election poll and our poll compiler on this page, updated daily.

This Sunday we will find out the names of qualified candidates for the second round of the presidential elections. The most likely scenario at this stage is the return of the Macron-Le Pen duel, as all the polls conducted in weeks in the elections give them an advantage in voting intentions. In this last week of the campaign before the first round, the 2nd round victory hypothesis for Marine Le Pen is no longer ruled out, the polls give the two likely finalists neck to neck with a margin of error.

Polls are part of elections, and the 2022 presidential election is no exception. However, they have been criticized by some observers for their tendency to direct voters, yet polls about voting intent have increased in recent months. Many photographs of public opinion are taken, published, commented on, and sometimes—slightly—controversial results as the call for the election of a tenant of the Élysée draws near.

Polling institutes that publish surveys of voter intent (Ifop-Fiducial, Elabe, Harris Interactive, Ipsos Sopra Steria, BVA, Odoxa, Cluster 17) conduct “waves” in a fixed pattern according to their own methodologies. Here is the latest poll taken in the first round of the 2022 presidential election.

If they allow one to give an idea of ​​the opinion of the French at the moment, the differences in the panels tested, as well as the margins of error taken into account, create many uncertainties regarding the finality of the results. . It should also be noted that while several polling institutes test voters’ intentions, Linternaut also offers a large barometer conducted with YouGov and summarizes the main polling trends on this page.

All polls conducted so far give Emmanuel Macron the right to run in the second round of the 2022 presidential election, and all of them even put him in first place in terms of voting intentions from the summer of 2021.

Over the past few weeks, all polls have given the National Rally candidate Marine Le Pen second place. Eric Zemmour was ranked ahead of far-right party president several times by Harris Interactive Institute in October, as were Ipsos for Le Monde in late October and Ifop Fiducial for LCI and Le Figaro in early November. Valerie Pekress took advantage of a strong poll momentum in December, now she appears to be far from the second round of the presidential election.

Polling institutes test multiple hypotheses in the same poll, so the results of the polls evolve according to the personalities tested, which influences the nominations of other political parties.

Poll Macron – Le Pen

In the event of a second-round confrontation in the presidential election between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, all polls conducted up to this point give the victory to Emmanuel Macron.

Poll Macron – Mélenchon

In the case of a second round between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Emmanuel Macron again gets the opportunity to win the presidential election.

Poll Macron – Pekress

In the event of a runoff between Emmanuel Macron and Valerie Pecresse, a right-wing candidate, Emmanuel Macron again has the opportunity to win the presidential election.

Poll Macron – Zemmour

In the case of a second round between Emmanuel Macron and Eric Zemmour, Emmanuel Macron again gets the opportunity to win the presidential election.

All voting intent polls place the head of state in the best position possible for the incumbent head of state. Linternaute.com’s political barometer, run in conjunction with YouGov, suggests that Emmanuel Macron will play a leading role in this presidential election. According to our survey, in the eyes of the French there is no rival capable of becoming the best president of the republic.

Remember that the polls are in no way a prediction of the results that will be in April 2022: these polls measure the balance of power and feel the pulse of public opinion at the moment. Campaign dynamics and current events, which are punctuated in the months leading up to an election, often change the intentions of the vote and the opinion of the French about this vote.

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