The seasonal forecast update is valid for the rest of the spring and the first half of the summer in mainland France and Europe, for May, June and July. The most likely scenario shows a quarter that is slightly warmer than the French average, but not excessively, with rainfall fairly close to normal on the French scale. We see a marker of a summer that will be stormy. Here is the monthly information about these long-term forecasts.
Meteorological spring began on March 1. If the month of March was dry and mild, with the same return of rain in the south of France, exactly as predicted in our previous seasonal forecast bulletins, then the month of April resumed with rain in half of the north of our country, which was also expected. On the other hand, April appears to be cooler than expected with strong temperature fluctuations. The problem remains the evolution of the drought: thanks to the return of the rains, our country should avoid a critical situation in the coming months, especially if the summer promises to be rainy, thereby limiting excessively long heat and drying of the soil.
Seasonal forecast for the month of May: quite variable
In May this month, the position of the centers of action will change compared to April, with the barometric pressure over France generally higher, which means less alarming weather. High pressures will be located over the wide Atlantic, while depressions will more likely circulate from Scandinavia to Central Europe (the negative wobble configuration in the North Atlantic favors north-northwest flows). Such a configuration would favor rather variable weather over France, as well as the development of some instability, especially in eastern France and north of the Loire. Moving south of our country and, in particular, around the Mediterranean Sea, the frequent mistral will maintain a significant rainfall deficit in a dry situation in the southeast. In general, this month of May can be characterized by mixed weather with torrential downpours and beautiful warm days, which is a common occurrence at this time of year. This anticyclonic edge configuration will also be favorable for days that are sometimes quite hot, as well as clear nights that can be cool, with a significant risk of light late frosts. Thus, our modeling assumes, in general, temperatures close to seasonal norms.
Seasonal forecast for June: hot and rainy
This first month of summer promises to be hot and very stormy, with precipitation, of course, very close to normal, but very disproportionate depending on the storms. Basically, they will circulate from the southwest (in particular, from the Pyrenees) and from the center-west to the north-east of France. With low pressure in the Iberian Peninsula, this would often result in stormy weather contributing to heatwaves because the dominant flow would be east-southeast over France. not uncommon in June. Only thunderstorm activity, if noted, could escape this forecast as thunderstorms limit the duration of heat waves. This exact evolution will need to be confirmed in our next bulletins, but to date June seems to be the hottest summer month on the French mainland (+1.5°C above average).
Seasonal forecast for July: hot and rather dry?
This month, synonymous with the beginning of the summer holidays as well as the harvest, seems to bear a resemblance to June, being a rather hot month, but without noticeable frills, with a steady stormy trend, but less pronounced than in June. These thunderstorms will break out mainly from the southwest to the northeast and over the Alps. The global meteorological configuration will be to maintain high pressure over northern and central Europe, while low pressure will be located over the Atlantic, off the coast of Portugal. These configurations contribute to the rise of hot air over France, which leads to the fact that the month of July is warmer than usual, around +1°C. Precipitation dissipated by storms can be slightly below seasonal averages. In general, the month of July can contribute to temporary abnormal heat in our country.
Throughout Europe quarter May-June-July promises to be warmer than average, especially in the Maghreb and in the east of the continent. France and the Iberian Peninsula will have more nuance due to the expected violent evolution and circulation disturbance over the British Isles. In terms of precipitation, it is predicted to be meager throughout the Mediterranean basin up to Turkey, including the Maghreb countries, and excessive over the British Isles and Central Europe (storms).
Finally, there is a fairly strong signal in favor of a rather hot summer in France, for the May-June-July quarter, but without a too pronounced anomaly. On the other hand, there remains a signal of a fairly noticeable rapid evolution, especially in June. This will be critical to curbing drought and curbing heat waves. The month of July seems to be more favorable for the risk of extreme heat after the inclement heat in June. Thus, this summer will not be as changeable as the past, which was perceived in public opinion as gloomy, but also not as hot and dry as the 2015-2019 series, which marked our country with a series of wonderful heat waves.